Nefarious Oil Gnomes

Bernanke You Big Ape!

2011-08-10T16:17:00.000-07:00

I'm tired of Bernanke that big ape, injecting the American markets with anesthetics. When, in fact, real fiscal reform is needed, like budget cuts and debt reduction, versus debt limit increases and continued ultra low interest rates. These are all recipes for disaster, while the hedge funds lick there chops from market volatility and unrest.

You can't stop the bleeding nor the pain Bernanke, especially when the president is no where in sight!

Malicious Prophets and Bear in Sheeps Clothes

2009-04-06T11:10:00.001-07:00

It is intriguing to see what people will do to make money or gain power. One cadre include the malicious prophets and naysayers, the conspiracy theory extrememists, out with vendetta and greed. Their modus operandi is a via negativa.

Such individuals will lucubrate in order to promote narrow personal gain, at the expense of the common good. They will precipitate foul vituperation and kick you while you are down. This includes the nascent report of Michael Mayo, through the report of Michael Moore on Bloomberg.

Mayo was right on in his 1999 bear call, to the loss of his job. However, now he wishes to extenuate his handsome returns after the massive slash in bank equities. There is one thing to portend a problem, have it come true, and be ordained king, there's another thing to allow it to get to your head, and perceive oneself as a perma-prophet. If Mayo is going to make such doomsday calls on the banks, he needs to demonstrate how this will take effect in real analysis, and show how it will mount upon the already enormous equity losses of the financials and write downs.

There was a promblem. The markets crashed horribly. And now some want to feed on the fear of others, at the expense of the systemic health of the country by beating up bank stocks even more. Michael Moore seems to enjoy this course, as can be seen in his documentaries; much like a bully enjoys beating up the vulnerable.

To Infinity and Beyond!

2009-03-24T08:44:00.000-07:00

I think in the end no one really knows whats going to happen with the markets, but one thing is for certain: taxes will always go up, inflation will always go up, commodity prices and services costs will always go up, and earnings will go up with well managed companies. The trend is always going to be up imo, but not necessarily because of virtue, rather because of the aforementioned negative reasons. That's why I agree with Buffett's last letter, esp., now that cash is going to be a sour loser. Over time betting on the market upwards propensity is the winner, the shorts had a singular massive win recently, now they are due, and already received a corrective comeuppance.

Universal Healthcare? I'm Outta Here.

2009-03-12T11:05:00.000-07:00

As a small business owner, myself, and seeing the proclivities toward socialism, particularly the leanings toward universal health-care, if such things come about in the U.S., then I'm moving to a different country.

Who in their right mind wants to pay %50 of their income toward taxes, and not get much, if anything for it. I guess if you are paying health care insurance premiums that our out of sight, and have multiple health care problems and financial problems, this sounds great! But for those who don't, who take care of their bodies, who work hard for their money, this sounds horrible.

Such political implementations will drive the talent, the healthy, the employers, the very heart of the economic engine, unquestionably away, leaving the welfare crowd to depend on themselves, devolving as a nation of decrepit, broke lepers.

Moreover, granting further employee entitlements, extending unemployment benefits and welfare, increasing the tax burden on small business owners, translates, practically, into a national unionization, crippling small businesses, and causing them to shed more jobs to stay viable, simultaneously capitulating even more, the employee payroll, making living wages impossible.

The Last Leg to Be Lopped-- Bank Bondholders

2009-03-11T12:18:00.000-07:00

With shareholders and taxpayers taking the brunt of the financial debacle, as the primary scapegoat for the crisis, the last leg they say to be punished is the bank bondholders, who are feasting on their 8% returns.

It's the top headline now on bloomberg. If I'm not mistaken, a bond holder has time commitments, thus, to cash out would be to take a significant hair cut, correct? The spreads on the bond yields are significantly high, about 8%, and it seems equitable that they do receive a trim. As for the ramifications of that, I'm not sure if it would be all that devastating, because they are getting all the cake right now, it would be to take away part of that big cake; it seems many would remain bondholders, simply because of the nature of such investors. Though, I did underestimate the severity of the collapse post DOW 8500. If the hair cut happens, then I think I will be on my toes, watching the vix. Yet, even still, it seems inappropriate to think bank stocks, after being cut in half and more, are not worth half of what they use to be. Thus, while the financials are being dismembered and this seems to be the last leg to be lopped, the trunk and the brain is worth more than the arms and the legs.

Day Trading Equals Gambling.

2009-03-11T09:50:00.000-07:00

People are wondering whether or not buy and hold is dead. Many people are becoming day traders, and a small percentage of those are actually making some money in these markets because of the swings.

However, day trading is gambling in my opinion, and subject to huge tax burdens of 35%. Let's simulate the day trader.

I have $10,000 I invest in an issue. The value goes up %10 in a month. I sell, and make $1,000. After taxes I make only two thirds of that, namely, $666. Here's the problem. I just gave up $333, and let us say the stock keeps going up. I miss out on the further upside, and I paid %20 more in taxes, rather than waiting a year to sell. Let's say the issue declines in value after the upside. It would have to decline by one third to make up for the tax loss. The odds of micro-timing the market are horrible. Thus, everything is out of favor for the day trader and it is the equivalent of gambling.

Buy and hold is wise. There are times when selling is also wise, even with tax losses, but this needs to be based on fundamentals.

The Bottom is In!

2009-03-10T07:02:00.001-07:00

Want to hear my bull case? Though markets this quarter have decreased the most since the great depression, and sunk past ten year lows, our earnings haven't sunk to those levels, nor rates. The last few months are going to be seen as a hiatus of depression in recession. Earnings are going to be disclosed much higher in 1st quarter than thought, and 2nd quarter particularly. The fear is subsiding quickly, which is the salient factor in the capitulation. Consumers are spending again, and saving. Many things are pointing toward confidence. This is a great bottom to put in on the books, and a great opportunity.

Angels in the outfield.

2009-03-09T06:16:00.000-07:00

This economic pearl harbor, has caught many people off guard, and now as we are picking up the pieces and dressing our wounds, we are asking ourselves, what could be more dire, and is there anything that will bring us out of this mess. Psychologists say that though negative comments, and scolding vituperations have their effects, positivity has stronger effects, particularly when contrasted with negativity. The truth of the matter is, when a positive voice emerges from the drowning swoon of depressing noise, and the voice strikes true there is nothing more powerful. It is from the clarion calls of such angels we will be rallied to heights.

Mind-Brain Dilemma, The Death of the Soul

2009-01-02T21:16:00.000-08:00

It's interesting how most people now-a-days are rather atheistic in manner. Look at how religion has become a kind of tombstone. If a poll was done, how many people would believe that there is an element of the human person, that survives death, and goes to another place? When we look at an animal, when it dies, we don't believe it has a soul which survives death, we know that is the end of that animal.

The question in neuroscience has become not so much whether there is a soul that is immaterial in the mind-brain dilemma, but rather, how can we physically explain all the workings of the "mind", including consciousness, and will power?

There have been some rather jumbled and staggering attempts to solve the problem, using exotic terms like qualia, and dynamic core theory. But perhaps it is rather a simple answer, along the lines of the aggregate idea--that the entire collection of neurons in the brain bring about these faculties, through their individual function and collectiveness. It's even easier than this though, isn't it, especially if we define consciousness in a simple manner say, as a sensing of sensing. We sense that we are sensing. A part or parts of the brain simply recognizes that another part is operating or sensing something. This gives rise to the idea of a inner ego, or what has been come to be known as the soul, the Cartesian dualism.

Now, could we ask another question that goes one step further, if the "soul" can be explained physically, then could there still be something which survives death, even still. Anything is possible, right? We are here with such incredible complexity, why couldn't this be also possible.

Poetic Justice.

2008-12-03T16:45:00.000-08:00

It's interesting to see what is happening in the economy and the markets. Our recent economic capitulation has been a well due punishment for the unwarranted bullishness and greed running rampant--people buying homes they can not afford, things they cannot afford and putting it on their charge cards.

Now, when it comes time for someone to pay for these imbalances, the taxpayer becomes the scapegoat. Humility and individual repayment ought to take place, but the taxpayer has been forced to participate.

In my opinion, to attack the root of the problem, eg., bad mortgages/foreclosures, and financial institutions originative of these, (this equivocally applied to other borrowed products and sources), we need to provide an incentive for the buyer, not the holder of these. The problem is no one desires these products at such a price, hence the excess invetory. how about incentives for buyers. We can do this by capitulating house prices, and by providing incentives to buyers.

A 700 Billion Dollar Bailout: Botox versus Systemic Change

2008-09-30T05:51:00.000-07:00

Hank Paulson, Bernanke, and a morass of immature news reporters and legislators think a 700 billion dollar injection into the banking system will be the nostrum for our "dying" economy. They use doomsday rhetoric and prod us on the exegency of the situation, saying our entire economy will collapse if we do not pass this bill. It is true some people may go homeless, but will the whole economy fall off a cliff? Very unlikely, but I guess it could happen, in the worst case scenario, as it did in the Great Depression. But it would take a complete loss of confidence in the system and a mass run on all the banks.

We all know how we got here, and we all know what needs to be done to fix the situation. Namely, less leveraging and borrowing and more regulation. The US government rather than using taxpayers money to inject the economy with what would be equivalent to botox, need to go in and do some real surgery, in order to restore confidence versus enrage the US citizen and taxpayer with an outrageously expensive bailout bill.

Simply put the reason the bill did not pass was because the Republicans, who were listening to the myriad of phone calls and emails they were receiving from their constituents, that's us, the American people, said nay! becaus we the taxpayers said nay, nay, nay! (The Democrats, by the way, weren't listening). The bill just is not fair. Not only would it cost the taxpayers a lot of money, believe me, we aren't going to recoup anything on these purchases, but it uses our money to artificially sustain the real estate market. There is an underlying greed factor beyind this bill--a good amount of homeowners who dislike seeing their homevalues go down in value, said let's use taxpayers money to keep our massive credit cards afloat, which is what many people have been using their mortgages for, ie., let's use our childrens money to sustain our excessiveness.

Again the real problem needs to be addressed, and not a quick fix used, which would only sustain the problem further. A real long term program needs to be installed in order to rejuvenate confidence in the market. The toxic assets should be brought to the fore, so everyone can see them, and so they can be expunged, ie., whoever bought them should loose them and the money they "invested" in them, and not those who work hard for their money. Banks who sold the bad loans and are on the problem list of the FDIC should be disclosed, and all savings accounts should be moved to strengthen banks who didn't make the mistakes of 5yr APRs, and excessive leveraging.

These politicians are pointing out a fire, and spreading it to the rest of the system. Most banks have sound balance sheets. Since their bill didn't get passed they want to see the economy collapse so they can say I told you so. Pride needs to go away, greed needs to go away, and real, organic, systemic legislation and practices need to be employed.

An Edge for the Economically Savvy and Entreprenurial

2008-08-15T07:55:00.000-07:00

The difference between the employer and the employed, the business owner and the one the one who works for him or her, the rich dad and poor dad, is not so much appropriation, but rather a vantage of perspective. Once one realizes the economic world and wealth building depends on the persuasion and spending of another, and that anything that deals with money is a business, things ones economic philosophy and practices changes.
Lets see if I can give some examples to explain this concept. Lets take the insurance industry. Obviously a good industry to be in if you are the owner a company, Warren Buffet, being the paradigm in this field. The vast majority of people think insurance for just about everything is not only a form of security but the smartest choice, and anyone who would want to opt out of this, is not only breaking the law but stupid. However, the actuaries that work for these companies make sure they are not losing money, they are in the business of making money. Thus, simply based on this reasoning, the odds are in the favor the insurance agency. They are like the casino owner. Another interesting thing to consider is that doctors and the medical field would probably do better off if there were no insurance programs, since doctors end up only collecting about 45% of what they charge after the insurance agencies trim the costs. Orthodontists seem to be doing better off then doctors since they have not had insurance programs until now. The solution would be to
Another example of seeing economic exchange as business, is in the event of buying a home. Banks make a nice profit off of lending money. Gone are the days of buying things with cash. The note 220,000 would yield about a $1,800 month payment with taxes, insurance, HOA fees, etc. only about $200-300 of that would actually go towards the principal. Upon doing the math, though there are many variables, in most cases, it makes more sense to rent for about 7.5-15 years, and simply pay for a place with cash. Thus, have a house all paid off, with no payment rather, than have bought a house with only half of it paid off, and paying for it twice.
Just a thought.

God Vs. Man

2008-05-30T08:19:00.000-07:00

Trying times, these are, in the realm of faith. What to believe, what not to believe, (and to believe at all), that is the question.

Emerging from the dark ages of Modern Times, and the almost dreamlike era of the past, technology has uncovered our world, and removed the previous barriers of ethnicity, nation, and the individual Descartes and Freud. Wikipedia from the mouth of the new God, Google, has become the bible, from which all things are learned. Nasa's Pheonix lands on Mars and uncovers likelihood of life. Evolution more a matter of fact than theory. A continuous uninterrupted, unaided evolved universe the most rational theory.

Not so fast, at least not so furious! Intelligent design struggles to uphold their tenant of a designer, but what of their evidence. There is without question of a doubt mathematical principles inherent within the fabric of the universe, which have guided the production of incredible creature: homo sapiens. Whence the existence of these principles, the existence of matter? The big bang does not explain it

The scientist argues, all one needs is a sufficient environment for life to exist and whola. The precision of the planet earth couldn't get any better. But is it that unlikely given the amount of matter in the universe, the amount of possibilities for planets to form and within a decent position from a star for this to occur. It doesn't take a stretch of the imagination, given enough time, and the conditions and laws of nature. But what of the existences, yes, the raw existence of nature, of these laws, of matter? Has it always simply existed, the first law of thermodynamics, energy can't be created or destroyed.

My conclusion is science can't answer this question or can only assume, and such an assumption is an act of faith. Thus, one is stuck in the realm of faith whether one likes it or not, and there is a lot of evidence at least to be able to say, wow, what a wonderful world we live in, where did it come from?

The Cause of the Oil Crisis

2008-05-30T08:06:00.000-07:00

My girlfriend surreptitiously burns the midnight oil submitting reports to the democratic news vector CNN Money, saying the cause of the increase in oil goes by the name of nefarious speculator in an unpretentious town home, in Strasburg, VA. That’s right, he’s the culprit for the rise in oil prices, and the reason I have to pay more at the gas tank! Gleefully, he continues to purchase more and more oil stocks such as Apache, and Petrobras, but forgets somebody has to pay for these wicked exploitations.

Certainly, US discretionary habits and oil addiction, the economic big bang in the East and Chinese and Indians purchasing tiny tatas at a neck breaking clip and driving them around like a disturbed ant farm has nothing to do with the growth in demand for oil and the increase in prices at the pump.

A litigationary probe immediately needs to be conducted by the government and a satellite monitoring of this criminal and others who with impunity continue to click buy on Zecco and Etrade.